Chinese gold bugs take the lead

Section:

By Jack Farchy
Financial Times, London
Friday, January 13, 2012

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c9fed38a-3dcc-11e1-91f3-00144feabdc0.html

Did China just overtake India as the world's largest gold consumer?

Little more than a year ago it would have been almost laughable to ask that question. In 2010 India's gold consumption was a full 46 per cent -- or 275 tonnes -- higher than China's, according to data from consultants GFMS published in the World Gold Council's quarterly reports.

Even three months ago it would have been a stretch. In the first nine months of 2011, Indian gold demand totalled 743 tonnes, compared to 612 tonnes for China.

But data released in the past few days suggests that China may have closed the gold gap, inching ahead of India in terms of overall gold demand in 2011.

... Dispatch continues below ...



ADVERTISEMENT

Be Part of a Chance to Discover
Multi-Million-Ounce Gold and Silver Deposits in Canada

Northaven Resources Corp. (TSX-V:NTV) is advancing five gold and silver projects in highly prospective and politically stable British Columbia, Canada.

Check out the exploration program on our Allco gold/silver project :

-- A large (13,000 hectare) property, covering more than 15 square kilometers of a regional mineralized trend just 3km from a recently announced 1.2-million-ounce gold and 15-million-ounce silver deposit.

-- The property hosts historic high-grade silver workings and many mineral showings as well as former mines at the property's northern and southern boundaries.

-- A deep-penetrating airborne geophysics survey has just been completed on the entire property and neighboring deposits and its results are eagerly awaited.

To learn more about the Allco property or Northaven's other gold and silver projects, please visit:

http://www.northavenresources.com

Or call Northaven CEO Allen Leschert at 604-696-3600.



Some of us had predicted this, but the data are sketchy, questionable, and incomplete, so it remains a hypothesis at this stage. GFMS is releasing updated -- but not final -- 2011 data on Tuesday, while the WGC should publish fourth-quarter numbers in mid-February.

Nonetheless, at least one senior gold trader I have spoken to believes that China did indeed consume more gold than India last year. That conclusion implies an enormous divergence in gold buying in the two countries in the fourth quarter. And indeed, initial data and anecdotal reports from traders support that picture.

Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong -- which in past years have accounted for about half of the country's total imports -- have soared to unprecedented levels.

In October and November, China imported 189 tonnes of the precious metal from Hong Kong. Add to that China's domestic production, which runs at a rate of about 90 tonnes a quarter, and even without including any buying in December or any imports from sources other than Hong Kong, Chinese demand in Q4 would stand at a minimum of 279 tonnes.

The reason for the spike in Chinese imports in recent months, traders say, is that throughout the supply chain the Chinese gold industry is aggressively building inventory ahead of Lunar New Year, after experience in 2011 when the country ran short. The effect is truly stunning: The 189 tonnes of imports in October and November compares with total imports for the whole of 2009 of just 45 tonnes.

Indian demand, on the other hand, collapsed in the fourth quarter as a slide in the value of the rupee made gold much more expensive for Indian buyers, already wounded by the slowing domestic economy.

The president of the Bombay Bullion Association told Reuters that Indian gold imports in the fourth quarter of 2011 tumbled by more than 50 per cent to 125 tonnes. Since India has almost no domestic production, that number, if correct, is also India's overall gold demand in Q4.

Put all the numbers together, and they imply that full-year Chinese demand in 2011 was at least 891 tonnes (and probably a good deal more), while Indian demand was just 868 tonnes. Bingo! China wins.

Now for the caveats. Most importantly, some analysts are sceptical of the Chinese import data. Perhaps the gold is being re-exported (illegally) to Vietnam, they say, perhaps it is the Chinese central bank buying, or perhaps the data are just wrong.

Secondly, there is scepticism about the Indian import data. While all agree Indian demand was tepid in the fourth quarter, not all believe there was such a dramatic decline.

We shall know for sure only when more accurate data come out in the next couple of months. Regardless, though, one thing is sure: It is hard to overstate the significance of the increase in Chinese gold demand.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, January 22-23, 2012
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investme...

California Investment Conference
Saturday-Sunday, February 11-12, 2012
Hyatt Grand Champions Resort
Indian Wells, California, USA

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe...

Support GATA by purchasing a silver commemorative coin:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Golden Phoenix Receives Inferred Gold Resource Estimate
For Santa Rosa Mine in Panama: 669,000 Oz. Gold, 2.1 Million Oz. Silver

Company Press Release
January 3, 2012

Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. (OTC: GPXM) reports that on behalf of Golden Phoenix Panama S.A., the joint venture entity that owns and operates the Santa Rosa gold mine in Panama, it has received from SRK Consulting (U.S.) an initial resource estimate for Mina Santa Rosa.

The Santa Rosa project is a volcanic-hosted epithermal gold-silver deposit previously operated as an open pit-heap leach operation. Production ceased in 1999 in part because of low gold prices.

SRK Consulting reports an in-situ inferred resource at the former Santa Rosa and ADLM pits totaling 23.1 million metric tonnes at 0.90 grams/tonne gold, for a contained 669,000 ounces of gold at a 0.30 g/t gold cutoff. The resource also contains an average grade of 2.87 g/t silver for a contained 2.1 million ounces of silver.

John Bolanos, Golden Phoenix's vice president of exploration, remarks: "In addition to SRK's inferred resource estimate of 669,000 contained ounces of
gold, the Santa Rosa project has an additional unspecified volume of mineralized material on former heap leach pads throughout the property. We expect to begin assessing this additional material in the near future."

For the company's full statement, including a table detailing the resources at Santa Rose, please visit:

http://goldenphoenix.us/press-release/golden-phoenix-receives-initial-ni...