Ruble whipsaws top forecasters as worst currency becomes best


By Ksenia Galouchko
Bloomberg News
Sunday, April 5, 2015

For one of the toughest jobs in financial markets, try predicting the ruble.

As Russia's currency went from the world's worst performer to the best in the first three months of this year, it caught out even the most accurate forecasters. Oil's drop to near a six-year low and cuts in interest rates, previous indicators of a weakening ruble, were swept aside as the cease-fire in Ukraine became the bigger determinant.

"None of my expectations regarding the ruble came true," Evgeny Shilenkov, the head of trading at Veles Capital LLC in Moscow, said by phone on Thursday. Shilenkov had forecast that the ruble would weaken as much as 3.6 percent in the quarter.

"This is our new reality -- there are too many different factors affecting the ruble, there are too many elements in the ruble matrix. The ruble is completely unpredictable.” ...

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