Bank currency strategists offer 5 ways U.S. could reverse strong dollar trend


Option 6: Stop shorting gold futures and starting buying real metal instead.

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By Anneken Tappe
MarketWatch, New York
Tuesday, August 21, 2018

President Donald Trump's recent rhetoric has been fixated on the dollar's strength against rivals. The U.S. commander in chief doesn't traditionally jawbone the dollar, but Trump has dispensed with convention and stepped up his assault on currencies and central banks, leaving strategists now speculating on all the ways in which he could seek to influence the buck.

"Can President Trump instruct the U.S. Treasury to intervene in FX markets and weaken the dollar? Twelve months ago, we wouldn't have even considered this question," wrote currency strategists Viraj Patel and Chris Turner of ING Group, a banking house in Amsterdam.

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Trump has made clear that he is no fan of a strong U.S. dollar, and with a popular gauge for the buck hovering near a 14-month high, it seems the government's tolerance may have run out. Generally speaking, the president has advocated a weaker-buck policy as a way to make the U.S. more competitive on the global stage.

"Overall, more active steps from the White House to weaken the dollar could serve to knock the top off of an emerging dollar bull trend," Patel and Turner said. "We think the U.S. administration's implicit desire for a weaker dollar that is consistent with its mercantilist U.S. trade policy will inevitably be self-fulfilling over the medium-term—and is one of the reasons why we remain strategically bearish on the U.S. dollar."

Here are five ways the strategists believe such dollar weakening could theoretically be achieved. ...

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