Dollar's long-term prospects turn gloomy, analysts say


By Eva Szalay and Colby Smith
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, April 21, 2020

The U.S. dollar is heading for a drop toward the end of this year, according to strategists, in what would mark a reversal from a record-breaking surge when coronavirus first washed over markets.

The world's most important currency shot higher in March, reaching its strongest ever point when stock and bond markets suffered the most intense phase of the pandemic's impact. A month later, the dollar -- widely considered a haven in times of stress -- remains unusually strong.

... Dispatch continues below ...


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But some analysts and investors are confident that the tide will soon shift, after central banks around the world acted to ease the flow of dollars around the financial system. Big cuts in U.S. interest rates, which are much larger than those in other big economies, are also likely to drag down the dollar in the coming months, they say.

"The most bearish outcome for the dollar is that the global economy recovers as expected and the U.S. Federal Reserve stays dovish," said Eric Stein, a portfolio manager at Eaton Vance. "We are seeing some of the conditions for a weaker dollar slotting into place." ...

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