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Backwardation in commodities jumps with tensions over Ukraine
By Michael Roschnotti and Gerson Freitas Jr.
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, February 23, 2022
Commodities are being priced near their highest premium on record to deliveries one year ahead, a measure known as backwardation that reflects how physical supplies of everything from oil to corn remain tight amid booming demand and rising geopolitical tensions.
The 23 energy, raw-material, and crop futures that make up the Bloomberg Commodity Index were about 6% higher than their one-year forward contracts at the close today, according to Bloomberg calculations. That's higher than any month-end backwardation rate in at least 15 years.
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While the reopening of major economies from lockdowns unleashed pent-up demand for transportation fuel and materials used in manufacturing, new mining and oil developments stalled and bad weather hurt crops.
To make matters worse, Europe went through an unprecedented energy crisis this winter, and now the Russia-Ukraine tensions are clouding the outlook for oil, gas and wheat supplies from the two nations.
In raw-material markets, futures are typically pricier at longer maturities because those reflect the cost of carrying inventories over time as well as future demand expectations -- a structure known as contango. But when markets fear scarcity and demand for products is urgent, they flip into backwardation. ...
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