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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Fed is preparing for a hand-brake U-turn on interest rates
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
If you want an idea of how the current fiscal and asset bubble in the United States might end, pay close attention to Bernard Connolly, esteemed consigliere to hedge funds and central bankers across the world for the last quarter century.
It will not end in a soft landing -- a "chimaera" -- and will certainly not end in another leg of accelerating economic growth. Nor will it end in soggy stagflation.
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The invidious choice facing the Federal Reserve, he warns, is either to allow a deep economic slump to unfold or slash rates to the bone before inflation has fallen back to target.
The latter course will send the dollar into free fall and destabilise the world's dollarised financial system, an outcome already being sniffed out by the reawakening gold market.
Mr. Connolly is one of the very few prophets who foresaw both the Great Recession and the eurozone sovereign debt debacle, not just in vague terms -- many did that -- but with eerie precision and with a powerful intellectual argument for why they would happen and why they would prove so intractable.
His new magnum opus, "You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism," is the story of the Faustian pact made by central bankers from the 1990s onwards, when they became addicted to bubbles and started stealing prosperity from the future.
His blistering critique over the decades has not stopped top officials at the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England from seeking his advice whenever trouble hits. After a long silence, he is again issuing warnings.
"There can be little doubt that there will be a U.S. recession unless the Fed loosens hard and soon. The labour market is weakening and 'excess savings' from the pandemic-era handouts are exhausted," he said. ...
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