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More hedge book-induced mining bankruptcies predicted by Newmont''s Lassonde
'Less Gold to be Sold Than Planned'
IAfrica.com
Saturday, September 4, 2004
http://business.iafrica.com/news/345466.htm
European central banks may sell as little as 250
tons of gold per annum, instead of the maximum
of 500 tons per annum, as per the second
European Central Bank agreement, from 2004
through to 2009, London-based UBS analyst
John Reade said in a note on Friday.
"This reduction would compensate for reduced
producer dehedging and the slowdown in physical
demand that we expect -- although the signaling
impact of such a decision would be the greater
than direct volume," Reade added.
In March 2004, 15 European central banks,
meeting at the Bank for International Settlements
in Basel, Switzerland, agreed to restrict their
gold sales to 500 tons a year or a total of 2,500
tons from 2004 to 2009.
"If this view proves correct, we will adjust our
gold price forecasts. These currently see gold
ending 2004 at $450 a troy once and peaking at
$470/oz in early 2005," he said.
"We now doubt that the renewed agreement will
actually lead to an increase in sales by central
banks. Rather, we believe there is a strong
possibility that the signatory central banks could
end up selling materially less gold between 2004
and 2009 than the 2000 tons they sold under the
terms of the first (central bank) agreement,"
Reade stated.
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