Resource Investor notes Silver Users Association''s fear of bullion fund

Section:

Dollar 'could plunge by 30%'

By Conor Keane
Finance Editor
Irish Examiner, Cork, Ireland
Monday, October 17, 2005

http://www.irishexaminer.com/pport/web/business/Full_Story/did-
sgS3ThenhDVossgDQQ5wn3uAIg.asp

Ireland Inc. must prepare for a massive fall in the value of the US
dollar against the euro that could see the US currency fall by 30%
or more.

This was the stark warning issued by Economic and Social Research
Institute (ESRI) economist Shane Garrett at the Dublin Economic
Workshop 28th annual economic policy conference in Kenmare.

He believes the evidence available suggests a large depreciation of
the dollar is the most effective way of reducing the unsustainable
US external imbalance.

"This is because it will simultaneously achieve improvement in the
trade balance, and an amelioration of the net external asset
position. However, it is impossible to even guess about the timing
of the depreciation, given that the currency's fall had been
prophesised for several years," he added.

He said the US is the economy with which Ireland enjoys its largest
merchandise trade surplus, which was worth about 10 billion in
2003.

"Accordingly, any reduction in the US trade deficit may have a
disproportionately negative effect on Ireland's external balance.
The contrasting profile of the US and Ireland's trade may mitigate
this however. Whereas the US deficit is concentrated in areas like
vehicles, clothing and consumer durables, Ireland's surplus lies
more in intermediate sectors like chemicals and computers.

"However, it is difficult to see how any large dollar depreciation
could be anything other than damaging to Irish exports."

He said any rebalancing of global external positions will free up
some of the capital funds being absorbed by the US economy.

"This may allow scope for some potential increase in FDI inflows to
countries outside of the US, including Ireland," he said.

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