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Study clears silver dental fillings of causing hard-money fanatics
12:06a ET Tuesday, April 18, 2006
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Not long ago Jim Rogers, the hedge and commodities
fund manager, was more impressed with lead than
with gold, and more impressed with himself than
anything. Then Refco taught him the meaning of the
term "counterparty risk."
So with gold quickly a couple hundred dollars
higher and showing no sign of stopping, Rogers has
come around, giving Bloomberg an interview, appended
here, forecasting a gold price of $1,000 per ounce.
Looks like us bugs might be getting respectable.
So is it time to take up UFOs instead? Maybe the
real Alan Greenspan was abducted by aliens in 1967
just after he wrote "Gold and Economic Freedom."
That WOULD explain everything.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
Rogers Says Gold Will Reach $1,000
As Commodities Prices Keep Soaring
By James Poole and Jeremy Naylor
Bloomberg News Service
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=10000080&sid=aTBs9vlvviyU&refer=asia
Jim Rogers, the former George Soros partner who foresaw the start of
a commodity rally in 1999, said the boom in energy and raw material
prices will endure, driving gold to a record $1,000 an ounce.
"The shortest bull market for commodities lasted 15 years, the
longest 23 years," Rogers, 63, said in an interview. So if history
is any guide, "they've got a long way to go."
Prices of crude oil, copper and zinc are at records, and other
commodities are at multiyear highs, as speculators and hedge funds
seek investments delivering greater returns than stocks and bonds.
Global demand led by China, the world's fastest growing major
economy, has outstripped supply curtailed by lack of investment and
output disruptions.
"Supply and demand is terribly out of balance for nearly all
commodities right now," Rogers said in Singapore April 17. "This is
not a bubble."
Gold for immediate delivery reached a 25-year high of $624.70 an
ounce today, still below an all-time peak of $850 for spot gold in
1980. Crude oil rose to a record $71.60 a barrel in New York
yesterday and copper gained the most in nine years.
"Economies around the world, especially in Asia, are growing very
rapidly," said Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum hedge fund with
Soros in the 1970s.
China, home to 1.3 billion people, grew 10.2 percent in the first
quarter, up from 9.9 percent in the previous three months, fueling
demand for energy and raw materials in homes, factories, and cars.
The country is the world's biggest consumer of steel, copper, and
zinc and the second-largest user of energy.
"Nearly everything makes a new all-time high in a bull market," said
Rogers. He didn't predict when gold would reach $1,000 an ounce.
The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index of 24 commodities rose to a record
yesterday, led by gains in metals, sugar and natural gas. The index
has increased 13 percent this year, compared with a 4.8 percent gain
in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Benchmark U.S. Treasuries
have lost about 1.6 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.
indexes.
Lack of investment in new supply is driving up prices.
"Nobody has discovered a major oilfield in over 35 years. All the
major oilfields are in decline," said Rogers. "Unless someone does
something quickly, the price of oil is going to go a lot higher over
the next decade."
He depicted a similar scenario for metals. "Nobody has opened any
major mines anywhere in the world for many years and it takes a long
time to bring new mines on stream," he said. "All the old mines are
in the process of being depleted and demand is continuing to grow."
Agricultural commodities may offer new investment
opportunities. "That's where prices have moved least." Cotton prices
are more than 50 percent below their all-time high; soybeans are 60
percent below their peak and sugar 80 percent, Rogers said. "These
agricultural commodities are very cheap on any historical basis," he
said.
Rogers, who lives in New York, traveled through China by motorcycle
and car as part of trips around the world to pick up investment
ideas. The journeys culminated in the books "Investment Biker"
and "Adventure Capitalist." Rogers also wrote the book "Hot
Commodities."
The commodity index fund he started in late 1998 has more than
tripled.
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