You are here

Peter Brimelow: Radical gold bugs gloating but guarded

Section: Daily Dispatches

By Peter Brimelow
MarketWatch.com
Monday, September 22, 2008

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/peter-brimelow-radical-gold-bugs/s...

NEW YORK -- Radical Goldbugs 1, Financial Establishment 0. However this game ends, the bugs are looking better right now.

I call the group of writers publishing in Bill Murphy's Le Metropole Cafe pay Website "radical" gold bugs because they argue not just that gold is a defense against governments debasing the currency but also that the U.S. government and its agents have been actively manipulating the gold price downward to help sustain the financial asset bubble.

When I last checked in, the cafe crowd was grimly determined in the face of the falling gold price, partly because their data indicated that bullion imports into India, by far the greatest consumer in the world, were soaring.

Gold fell further. And Indian imports soared further. This past week, gold has more than bounced back. Indian imports are still soaring.

Le Metropole's correspondent concludes: "Where we go from here of course depends entirely on the central banks. Will they produce the physical needed to keep the East at bay? Based on the premiums seen in the summer, in the Indian down season and with world gold over $900, plenty of air freight space will need to be booked."

Bill Murphy himself thinks the world hasn't paid enough attention to LeMetropole Cafe. He was understandably savage on Sunday night: "This morning the talk shows were filled with blabber about the coming U.S. bailout, and naturally Comrade Henry Paulson was front and center giving his pitch about how he hated what he had to do, but it must be done. And, of course, he used his favorite talking-point word, 'stability,' over and over.

"It is almost beyond ironic that he is as responsible for the mess we are in today as anyone because of his role in manipulating the price of gold, first at Goldman Sachs and now as Treasury secretary. ... Of course, most don't realize that our government has been rigging markets for years, setting up false expectations and complacency. In the process they are destroying the free market and the checks-and-balances system in the U.S."

Murphy says in passing that the gold price should be twice what it is today. But he also quotes approvingly a weekend estimate by CLSA analyst Chris Woods putting gold at $3,360 in 2010.

Still, the cafe crowd is battled-scarred. Another writer warned: "The U.S. has a financial crisis of epic proportions and the last thing they want is for gold to become the go-to asset."

Harry Schultz of the International Harry Schultz Letter is an enterprising traditional gold bug who has adopted much of the radical critique. Schultz is quite often cautious about gold's short-term prospects. But for some months he has been positively apocalyptical about financial system risk.

Well? Anyone got a problem with that now?

Writing on Tuesday with gold around $780, Schultz was once again relatively cautious about gold near-term prospects: "Gold bullion has so far held crucial $750 uptrend line support from its July 2005 low, helped by an extreme oversold condition and rapidly deteriorating troubles in the financial markets. However, we repeat that the constancy of any gold rebound-cum-reversal will depend largely on the U.S. dollar, which requires a two-day close below December $78.30 to destabilize the bulls, and again below $76.70 to confirm a significant U.S. dollar top. Unless these levels are breached, any strength in gold bullion will remain suspect."

The US Dollar Index closed at 77.67 on Friday.

But Schultz also warned: "As the U.S. dollar moves back to the receiving end of its own 'misdemeanors' and its July rally-leg teeters dangerously, it's less likely that global central banks, frantic to exit huge U.S. dollar reserves, will act with the same former restraint and co-ordination. In fact, we could see a mad dash for the U.S. dollar fire escape and potential 'moon-shot' for gold."

* * *

Join GATA here:

Toronto Resource Investment Conference
Saturday-Sunday, October 4-5
Metro Toronto Convention Centre, Toronto, Canada
http://goldshow.ca/ch_tor2008.html

New Orleans Investment Conference
Thursday-Monday, November 13-18, 2008
New Orleans Marriott Hotel
http://www.NewOrleansConference.com

* * *

Help Keep GATA Going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at http://www.gata.org/.