Chinese silver exports expected to plunge, diverted by investment demand

Section:

By Feiwen Rong
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, October 19, 2010

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-19/silver-shipments-from-china-big...

Silver exports from China, the world's largest, may drop about 40 percent this year as domestic demand from industry and investors climbs, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.

Shipments may decline from about 3,500 metric tons in 2009, said Feng Juncong, chief analyst at the state-owned Antaike, without providing a specific forecast. Customs data show exports plunged almost 60 percent to 970 tons in the first eight months. Cancellation of an export rebate in 2008 is also hurting shipments, she said.

Reduced exports may bolster prices that are trading near a 30-year high on speculation that governments worldwide will take further steps to stimulate their economies, weakening currencies and increasing demand for assets that are a store of value. China, the third-largest producer after Peru and Mexico, revoked export rebates in August 2008 to curb use of natural resources.

... Dispatch continues below ...



ADVERTISEMENT

Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome,
Plans Aggressive Exploration of Elizabeth Gold Property

On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia.

Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013."

For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit:
www.SonaResources.com

A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth



"There is huge demand in China this year and that has affected exports, which were already hurt after the tax rebate was abolished," said Ng Cheng Thye, head of bullion at Standard Bank Asia. "The demand is coming from all areas, including jewelry, investment, and fabrication and this has resulted in a physical market shortage in the Far East."

The metal for immediate delivery touched $24.92 an ounce on Oct. 14, the highest price since September 1980, and traded at $24.2750 at 2:28 p.m. in Singapore. Industrial applications for silver, including electrical conductors and batteries, represent about half global demand.

"China may sharply reduce its silver exports this year following the scrapping of the rebate and as domestic demand picked up amid expectations for higher inflation," Feng said. This year’s 5,100-ton quota is unlikely to be fully used, she said.

Silver has rallied 44 percent this year, outperforming gold and copper. In the short term, prices will be between $20.50 and $25.50, GFMS Chairman Philip Klapwijk said on Oct. 16. "Silver is likely nearing a top now, and that it has more downside in the short term than upside," he said. "But we remain bullish in the long term."

China's silver production, including mined, byproduct output, and recycled material, grew by an average 14.9 percent every year in the 20 years since 1990 to 10,348 tons in 2009, Feng said. Growth was mainly because of the fast-growing production of lead, zinc and copper, which generates silver as a by-product, Feng said.

The country's silver output dropped 1.9 percent in the first eight months to 7,445 tons, she said. About 60 percent of China’s silver mined output is in the form of by-product of base metals, according to Antaike estimates.

An expected drop in lead and zinc concentrate supplies will affect domestic smelter production, weighing on China’s silver output growth, she added.

"There are Chinese investors now hoarding silver, along with other resources, amid anticipation of higher inflation," Feng said. "China is short of resources so these investors believe the metals will be more valuable in the future."

* * *

Join GATA here:

The Silver Summit
Thursday-Friday, October 21-22, 2010
Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington
http://www.silversummit.com/

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 27-30, 2010
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
http://www.neworleansconference.com/redirect.php?page=index.html&source_...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy Resource Goes Into Production
at Ulaan Ovoo Coal Mine in Mongolia

A commission appointed by Mongolia's Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy has conducted the final permit inspection at Prophecy Resource Corp.'s Ulaan Ovoo mine site and has instructed the company to begin coal production. Prophecy Resource (TSX.V: PCY) has begun production of its first 10,000 tonnes of coal as a trial run of supply to be taken by rail to electric power stations in Darkhan and Erdenet, Mongolia's second and third largest cities after the capital, Ulaanbaatar. The company is the second-ever Canadian mining company to get a permit to mine in Mongolia and start production there.

For the company's complete announcement, please visit:

http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_oct14.php