By Myra P. Saefong
MarketWatch, New York
Monday, April 27, 2026
The value of gold has declined by nearly 11% since the Iran war began in late February, but opportunity in the precious-metals market for investors isn't just about that decline in prices: The rally in oil is expected to help boost gold's appeal too.
"Higher-for-longer" energy prices will likely be a big growth headwind in the months ahead, and that macro setup in the second half of this year will be more favorable for gold, Michael Armbruster, co-founder and managing partner at futures brokerage Altavest, told MarketWatch. The yellow metal is often viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic stress.
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It also helps that gold prices have fallen from their peak. Since the start of the Iran war on Feb. 28, gold prices have remained below the record-high levels seen earlier this year. The most active, June contract for gold futures settled at $4,693.70 an ounce on Comex Monday, down 1% for the session.
Prices have fallen about 10.6% from the Feb. 27 settlement of $5,247.90. Though gold prices rose during the first trading day after the start of the conflict, they eventually posted a nearly 11% loss for the month of March. That was the first monthly decline since June of last year, and the biggest monthly drop in nearly 13 years, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
"What we've seen since the outbreak of war is a fairly typical pattern in crisis markets," said Stefan Gleason, president and CEO at Money Metals Exchange. Gold initially surged on geopolitical fear and safe-haven demand, but the price pulled back as "liquidity needs emerged" and as the narrative shifted to inflation worries and a halt to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate-easing cycle.
Prices based on the most active gold contract are now trading 12.4% below the record intraday high of $5,626.80 from Jan. 29.
Gold has been "lumped into every other asset market" and is therefore being driven by the U.S.-Iran conflict, said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. ...
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