You are here

Import data implies gold buying by China's central bank

Section: Daily Dispatches

China Central Bank in Gold-Buying Push

By Jack Farchy
Financial Times, London
Thursday, February 16, 2012

The World Gold Council believes China's central bank made significant gold purchases in the final months of 2011, contributing to a surge in the country’s imports.

Marcus Grubb, managing director for investment at the WGC, a lobby group for the gold mining industry, told the Financial Times that buying by the People's Bank of China could explain a large discrepancy between Chinese imports and the WGC's estimates of consumer demand in the country.

"There is absolutely a discrepancy in the import figures," said Marcus Grubb. "The obvious inference is that the central bank is buying."

... Dispatch continues below ...


Free Month Subscription to Market Force Analysis for GATA Supporters

Market Force Analysis is a unique, patent-pending approach to commodity market analysis. An algorithm has been developed to extract supply and demand weightings from futures market data. The difference between supply and demand is the market imbalance that is called "market force," so named because it is what drives price. It brings clarity to past market action and predicts market trends. Because it is derived from accurate futures market data it is not subject to the errors inherent in macro-level estimates of supply and demand.

Learn more here:

Market Force Analysis focuses on short-term (15 days) and medium-term price predictions to help both short-term traders and long-term investors understand market moves and benefit from the generated prediction of prices. To read subscriber comments that show how much the service is appreciated, visit:

The MFA service has been pioneered by market analyst and Gold Anti-Trust Action board member and researcher Adrian Douglas.

The Market Force Analysis premium service provides:

-- A bi-weekly report.

-- Access to the MFA hot list of junior mining stocks derived from analysis of more than 800 mining stocks. The MFA hot list consistently outperforms well-known mining share indices like the HUI, GDX, and GDXJ.

-- E-mail alerts about actionable trades.

-- E-mail updates with important information.

To obtain your 1-month free trial subscription to the Market Force Analysis letter, e-mail and put "MFA Free Trial" in the subject field.

His comments mark the first public statement from a senior gold industry executive pointing to purchases by the Chinese central bank, a trend that many others have highlighted privately. The PBOC did not respond to questions on Thursday.

China's imports from Hong Kong, which account for the majority of its overseas buying, soared to 227 tonnes in the last three months of 2011, according to data published by Hong Kong. Mine production in the country, the largest gold producer, stood at about 100 tonnes in the quarter, implying total supply of at least 330 tonnes.

That compares to demand of 191 tonnes for gold jewellery, bars, and coins -- which account for the vast majority of Chinese demand -- reported by the WGC on Thursday.

Most industry executives believe China has been quietly accumulating gold produced in its domestic market for years, but it rarely publishes details of its holdings. In 2009, Beijing revealed it had almost doubled its gold reserves since 2003, making it the fifth-largest holder of bullion with 1,054 tonnes.

Philip Klapwijk, head of metals analytics at Thomson Reuters GFMS, the consultancy that produced the data underlying the WGC report, agreed that the so-called "official sector" of the central bank and other sovereign institutions may have bought gold in the final quarter of the year. "It could be that the apparent surplus in the domestic market due to the scale of imports reflects official sector purchases," he said.

However, he added that some of the apparent surplus could be accounted for by stockbuilding by Chinese banks ahead of the lunar new year holiday.

Mr Grubb added that the Hong Kong trade data could yet be subject to revisions, or that other players, such as Chinese sovereign wealth funds, or other financial institutions, could have accumulated stocks of gold during the quarter.

But he added: "In the medium term we do know the Chinese central bank and other Asian central banks with large foreign exchange reserves have been increasing their holdings of gold. This is consistent with that."

Central banks bought about 440 tonnes of gold last year on a net basis, the WGC said, the highest level of buying since 1964. Large buyers included Mexico, Russia, and South Korea.

China's State Administration of Foreign Reserves, which manages China’s $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves under the Central Bank, has said publicly that it views gold and other commodities as having limited relevance for its investments because of price fluctuations, storage costs, and limited transaction volumes.

However, advisers to the central bank have been urging China to diversify its holding of foreign reserves, which is held mostly in US Treasuries and other governments' bonds.

Demand from Chinese consumers is also rising rapidly, as they pour newfound wealth into gold. The WGC on Thursday predicted that China would this year overtake India as the world's top gold consumer for the first time.

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

To contribute to GATA, please visit: