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Treasuries buying wave triggers first yield curve inversion since 2007
By Emily Barrett and Katherine Greifeld
Friday, March 23, 2019
The Treasury yield curve inverted Friday for the first time since the last crisis, triggering the first reliable market signal of an impending recession and rate-cutting cycle.
The gap between the three-month and 10-year yields vanished as a surge of buying pushed the latter to a 14-month low of 2.416 percent. Inversion is considered a reliable harbinger of recession in the U.S. within roughly the next 18 months.
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Demand for government bonds gained momentum Wednesday when U.S. central bank policy makers lowered both their growth projections and their interest-rate outlook. Most officials now envisage no hikes this year, down from a median call of two at the December Fed meeting. Traders took that dovish shift as their cue to dig into positions for a Fed easing cycle, pricing in a cut by the end of 2020 and a one-in-two chance of a reduction as soon as this year. ...
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