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Treasury inversion is not about the U.S. but the whole world
By Anchalee Worrachate and Liz McCormick
Monday, February 10, 2020
The U.S. yield curve is flirting with another broad-based inversion again, reigniting Wall Street fears over the fate of the American economy.
A growing chorus of voices is being swayed by another notion: The signal might say more about the state of the world than the U.S. business cycle.
... Dispatch continues below ...
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Treasuries now make up more than half of all global haven assets, double the share they accounted for during the financial crisis, according to Eurizon SLJ Capital. That complicates matters when long- and short-term yields flip: What used to be a reliable American recession indicator is instead an barometer of investors diving for cover worldwide.
It’s a narrative that makes a lot of sense as the threat from the coronavirus continues to grow, and it revives the frantic debate from last year about how much predictive power the curve actually has left. ...
... For the remainder of the report:
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