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Dollar's dominance to slowly melt away over coming year, Reuters poll finds
By Rahul Karunakar
Wednesday, July 1, 2020
The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.
Despite fears a surge in new COVID-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied -- with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.
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Caught between bets in favor of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects, as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1 percent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.
While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1poll of more than 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.
"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case any time soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London. ...
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