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Dollar at risk of collapse? Ex-IMF official warns 'blow-up event' could sink currency as debt mounts
By Karen Yeung
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Friday, July 24, 2020
With the United States expected to double down on its fiscal stimulus measures to mitigate the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, and the U.S. Federal Reserve continuing its aggressive monetary policy easing, there is a rising risk of a sudden loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar, according to a former senior executive with the International Monetary Fund.
Zhu Min, who was deputy managing director of the IMF from 2011 to 2016, said the U.S. dollar's position as the dominant global currency was at risk of being eroded because of mounting U.S. government debt.
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The U.S. Congress is considering a fresh round of relief to support the U.S. economy that is likely to cost at least U.S.$1 trillion on top of the more than U.S.$2 trillion passed earlier this year. Leaders of the Democratic-led House of Representatives and Republican-led Senate will have to reach a compromise on separate bills, with the House having already passed a U.S.$3 trillion package, while the Senate is expected to pass a smaller bill of about U.S.$1 trillion in the coming days.
"The concern isn’t whether the U.S. dollar will see an accumulated decline of 30 percent in the future, but whether there will be a blow-up event that causes a sudden loss of confidence in the dollar and its market to collapse,' said Zhu, who is head of the National Financial Research Institute at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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