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Dollar's rise was the extraordinary move, not its recent decline, analyst says
Alternative Gauge Signals that Talk of Dollar's Demise Is Premature
By Eric Lam
Tuesday, August 11, 2020
The dollar's stunning decline last month, the most in a decade, suddenly looks a lot less consequential once you take into consideration the inflation-adjusted value of the greenback.
That's the view of veteran strategist Marshall Gittler, who suggested investors should adjust for price levels, use a wider basket of trading peers than the closely-followed U.S. Dollar Index, and remember how much the currency had previously risen, in order to put its move in proper context.
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While the gauge of the dollar fell 4.2% in July, the U.S. Fed Trade-Weighted Real Broad Dollar Index weakened by only 0.9%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
"Back in April, the recent peak, the dollar's real value was the highest it's been in nearly 18 years," Gittler, head of investment research at BDSwiss Group, said in a note Friday, published by Nasdaq. "That was the extraordinary move, not the recent decline." ...
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