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Neil Newman: It's time to ditch the crashing U.S. dollar and buy groceries with gold. Here's how

Section: Daily Dispatches

By Neil Newman
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Monday, August 17, 2020

I was having a beer the other week with an esteemed former colleague and superb commodities commentator, Tom Holland, who was saying that he kept hearing from people thinking the U.S. dollar would "crash" and that he thought they might be right.

For the past four years at least, currency analysts and commentators were saying the U.S. dollar was too strong and would correct. The same would go for the Hong Kong dollar, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's peg in place. And indeed, if you compare it with the sterling or the euro, the US dollar is strong.

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But as Tom pointed out, what would it crash against?

Sterling? Unlikely, with the British economy in its present state.

The euro? No, for the same reason.

The Japanese yen? Also unlikely, as it seems to reliably trade in a Y105-Y110 range against the dollar -- and even if the dollar crashed against the yen, would anyone but the Americans care? Probably not.

The more likely case would be for the dollar to generally decline against all the major currencies, and of course take the Hong Kong dollar with it. I suggested to Tom that a sharp dollar decline may already have occurred, but that it happened against gold. ...

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