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Alasdair Macleod: Gold price framework update -- the new cycle accelerates
By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, January 28, 2021
Gold prices rallied 25% in 2020 after having gained 19% the year before. We believe this marks still only the beginning of the current gold price cycle, as all main drivers for gold prices are strongly skewed to the upside.
In our gold price framework ("Gold Price Framework Vol. 2 -- The Energy Side of the Equation, May 28, 2018"), we identified three main price drivers for gold prices over the long run: Central bank policy (real-interest rate expectations and quantitative easing); net central bank gold sales, and longer-dated energy prices.
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When we presented the first iteration of this model in late 2015, we came to the conclusion that these three drivers were all aligned for gold to be at the bottom of its prices cycle and enter a new cycle. ...
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