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Alasdair Macleod: A perfect storm in banking is brewing

Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, June 16, 2022

Now that interest rates are rising with much further to go, the global banking system faces a crisis on a scale like no other in history. Central banks loaded with financial securities acquired through quantitative easing face growing losses, and their balance sheet liabilities are now significantly greater than their assets -- a condition that in the private sector is termed bankruptcy. They will need to be recapitalised urgently to retain credibility.

Further, banking regulators have made a prodigious error in their oversight of the commercial banking system by focusing almost solely on bank balance sheet liquidity as the principal determinant of risk exposure. And on the few occasions in the past when they have demanded that banks increase their own capital, it has always been through the creation of preference shares and pseudo-equities to avoid diluting the true shareholders. 

... Dispatch continues below ...


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The consequence is that the level of leverage for common equity shareholders in the global systemically important banks has risen to stratospheric levels.

The regulators may be comfortable with their liquidity approach, but they have ignored the periodic certainty of a contraction in bank credit and the consequences for banks' equity interests. Meanwhile, global systematically important banks have asset-to-common equity ratios often more than 50 times, with some in the eurozone over 70. It is hardly surprising that most G-SIBs are valued in the equity markets at substantial discounts to book value.

G-SIBs have accumulated excessive exposure to financial assets, both on-balance sheet and as loan collateral. With vicious bear markets now evident and further interest rate rises guaranteed by falling purchasing power for currencies, the one thing regulators have not allowed for is now happening. Like a deepening meteorological low, bank credit is contracting into a perfect storm.

Jamie Dimon's recent warning that his bank (JPMorgan Chase) faces hurricane conditions confirms the timing. Central banks, bankrupt in all but name, will be tasked with rescuing entire commercial banking networks, bankrupted by a collapse in bank credit. ...

... For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/a-perfect-storm-in-banking-is-brewing

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