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Alasdair Macleod: The evolution of credit and debt in 2023
By Alasdair Macleod
Thursday, January 12, 2023
The evidence strongly suggests that a combined interest rate, economic, and currency crisis for the United States and its Western alliance will continue in 2023.
This article focuses on credit, its constraints, and why quantitative easing has already crowded out private-sector activity. Adjusting M2 money supply for accumulating quantitative easing indicates the degree to which this has driven the U.S. tax base into deep recession. And the wider effects on credit in the economy should not be ignored.
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After a brief partial recovery from the covid crisis in U.S. government finances, they are likely to start deteriorating again due to a deepening recession of private-sector activity.
Funding these deficits depends on foreign inward investment flows, which are faltering. Rising interest rates and an ongoing bear market make funding from this source hard to envisage.
Meanwhile, from his public statements President Putin is fully aware of these difficulties, and a consequence of the Western alliance increasing its support and involvement in Ukraine makes it almost certain that Putin will take the opportunity to push the dollar over the edge. ...
... For the remainder of the analysis:
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