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Canada's gold exports to China rise, shining through the trade tensions

Section: Daily Dispatches

By Gabriel Friedman
National Post, Toronto
Monday, July 8, 2024

China's demand for gold has risen in the past few years, helping to usher in record-breaking prices and a growing trade relationship with Canada for the shiny metal.

In the past, interest rates in the United States and flows into or out of gold-backed exchange-traded funds were used by many analysts as a quick way to predict the direction of the gold price. In recent years, though, U.S. interest rates rose and gold-backed ETF holdings contracted, which should have softened gold prices, but the price of bullion reached all-time highs, currently at US$2,371 per ounce.

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“Gold's bellwether relationship with U.S. real interest rates has broken down quite spectacularly over the past two years, with gold reaching all-time highs despite high real rates," Max Layton, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said in a new note on gold prices.

He said gold demand from China and central banks accounted for 85% of mine supply through the first three months of 2024 and 70% on average during the prior two years. That's up from 25% during the three-year period from 2019 to 2021. ...

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