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Shanaka Anselm Perera: Japan's bond market just ended the era of free money and triggered capital repatriation
By Shanaka Anslem Perera
Sunday, November 16, 2025
Shanakaanslemperera.substack.com
On a seemingly ordinary Monday in November, Japan's 10-year government bond yield touched 1.71%. For most observers, this was a technical footnote buried in the daily market data. For those who understand the intricate plumbing of global finance, it was the sound of the Jenga tower's critical block sliding free.
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That 1.71% figure represents the highest yield on Japanese government bonds since June 2008, when Lehman Brothers still existed and the global financial system stood weeks away from systemic collapse. But unlike 2008, when external crisis drove yields higher, this move originates from deliberate policy choices within Japan itself. The implications are far more profound than any single market dislocation.
What happened on November 10 was not merely a bond market adjustment. It was the beginning of the end of a three-decade arrangement that quietly underpinned the entire post-Cold War financial order. Japan, the world's largest net creditor nation with over $3 trillion in net foreign assets, has begun the long process of bringing that capital home. ...
... For the remainder of the analysis:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-179099797
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