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Jim Sinclair: European Central Bank intervention is out in the open
By Jim Sinclair
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Welcome back to the Bretton Woods Agreement: currency bands modernized and revitalized.
You would have to be blind not to see it. Today Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank president, returned to his strategy statement that inflation is a more compelling issue for the ECB than the level of economic activity.
Most of the last three generations of currency traders make their market decisions based on anticipated interest rate differentials. The euro was muscled off the $1.60 level by more than $10 billion in currency market intervention, along with Trichet's verbal intervention, his stating that the economic environment might take precedence over inflation. Today as Trichet reverses himself by making inflation the primary concern, more intervention is taking place to make the euro look weak in the face of a statement that should have the opposite impact.
Now you have the euro "verbal currency band" reinstated at a low of $1.49 and a high of $1.60. Alarms now have been put in place in the euro that will scream like a siren when violated. The euro trading above $1.60 will clearly show that central bank power has been overcome by market action.
The U.S. and ECB central banks will change the bands to $1.55-$1.65 but that will fall quickly, as my following comments outline.
Gold will recognize that the lower band is the floor price for the euro, at which time market reactions for gold will become less violent and higher highs will be achieved. A little less violent trading range for gold would certainly make life easier for everyone -- especially those companies that produce, explore for, and develop mineral deposits.
I have informed you many times that there is going to be a revitalized and modernized reinstatement of the Federal Reserve gold certificate ratio. This monetary tool has been reviewed many times on www.JSminset.com. Go to "search" there to review.
The revitalized and modernized Federal Reserve gold certificate ratio will be tied to a reintroduction of M3. It will not be tied as in the pre-Bretton Woods Agreement. The Treasury Department will have nothing whatsoever to do, as the open market will do it for the department.
Now I can state with total conviction that when the Federal Reserve gold certificate ratio is reintroduced, gold will trade $100 above and below this index gold price for many years to come. I anticipate this at gold $1,650.
So fear of a 1980 gold experience on the downside is no longer valid. I have told you that those you identify as gold's enemies are indeed gold's best friends. As always, those close to power are going to make more on gold than the disbelievers in the gold community ever will.
With the introduction of the revitalized Federal Reserve gold certificate ratio and currency bands, gold will be supported by a peg and the euro will not. When this unfolds in front of all the meatheads in the investment world, it will be seen that gold is a better investment than any currency.
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